XPO Logistics

XPO

Integrated Freight & Logistics · Industrials

Price

$215.02

-4.27 (-1.95%)

Market Cap

$25.25B

Winston Score

Winston is serious

Below-average fundamentals — multiple weak pillars.

Share count rising — dilution

+4.4% over 4y

The company has issued more shares over this period, which dilutes each existing shareholder’s stake.

Diluted shares outstanding: 114.0M (2021) → 119.0M (2025)

XPO is a trucking and freight company based in the United States. It specializes in less-than-truckload (LTL) shipping, which means it combines packages from many different customers into one truck instead of giving each customer their own truck. Its main customers are retailers, manufacturers, and e-commerce companies that need to move goods across the country.

XPO makes money by charging businesses to pick up, sort, and deliver freight through its network of over 600 service centers across North America. After selling off several other divisions in recent years, XPO is now focused almost entirely on its LTL business, which gives it a simpler but more concentrated operation. Its large network of terminals and trucks is expensive to copy, which creates a barrier for new competitors, but the business is sensitive to economic slowdowns because companies ship less freight when the economy weakens.

Winston Score History

Politician Trades

2 trades / 12mo

1 Congressional buy and 1 sell on XPO in the last 12 months.

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Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+7.3% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow revenue growth

EPS Growth

+45.8% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Strong earnings growth

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

11.8%ownership

→ Flat

Insiders holding steady — not selling despite ability to

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$237M cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth context

XPO Logistics is growing revenue at 7% year-over-year. The Winston Score measures business quality today — these growth metrics show what could matter tomorrow.

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Score breakdown

Every number that matters to educated investors.

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Quality

Gross Margin

11.4%

Thin — 11.4% gross margin

Operating Margin

8.8%

Modest — 8.8% operating margin

ROCE

3.5%

Weak — 3.5% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+3.6%

Slow sales growth (3.6% YoY)

EPS YoY

-11.9%

Earnings shrinking (-11.9% YoY)

Earnings per share down more than 10%. Either a bad year, or a real decline.

EPS Consistency

2/8 quarters

Earnings rarely grow — volatile business

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

295%

Turns 295% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

5.5%

Thin free cash flow (5.5%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

1.86

Elevated debt (1.86)

Interest Cover

3.48x

Tight — interest eats into profit (3.5x)

Interest coverage between 3 and 8. Profits cover interest several times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

72.9x

Expensive — P/E 72.9

P/E over 35. The market is pricing in heavy, sustained growth.

P/E vs Forward

+44.8

GROWING

Earnings expected to grow meaningfully — cheaper on forward P/E (72.9 → 28.1)

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Dividends

Not applicable for this business.

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