ZTO Express (Cayman)

ZTO

Integrated Freight & Logistics · Industrials

Price

$23.98

-0.06 (-0.25%)

Market Cap

$18.99B

Exchange

New York Stock Exchange

Winston Score

Winston is serious

Mixed quality — meaningful strengths and weaknesses.

Data as of Jul 25, 2026 · filings through Mar 31, 2026

ZTO Express is one of China's largest parcel delivery companies. It picks up and delivers packages for online shoppers and e-commerce sellers, mainly through platforms like Taobao and Pinduoduo. ZTO is a key part of China's massive e-commerce supply chain, handling billions of parcels every year.

ZTO makes money by charging fees for each package it delivers. It operates through a large network of independent partners — franchisees who handle local pickups and drop-offs — while ZTO runs the central sorting hubs and long-haul transportation. This "network partner" model keeps costs lower than running everything in-house, which is a core competitive advantage. ZTO operates almost entirely within China, and its scale gives it pricing power over smaller rivals. The main growth driver is continued growth in Chinese e-commerce volume, but the main risk is intense price competition among China's major express delivery companies, which can squeeze profit margins.

Winston Score History

Growth Profile

For growth stock investors

When traditional metrics don't capture the full picture, these are the signals growth stock investors use instead.

Revenue Growth

+22.0% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Steady revenue growth

EPS Growth

+9.2% YoY

YoY Growth Rate

Slow EPS growth

R&D Spend

$0/ year

0.0% of revenue

Below sector average (4%)

Research and development spending

Insider Activity

0.9%ownership

Relatively low insider ownership

Cash Position

Cash flow positive

$38.9B cash & investments

Quarterly Free Cash Flow

↑ Burn rate improving

Company generates more cash than it spends — no dilution risk from fundraising

Growth + cash flow

ZTO Express (Cayman) is a rare growth stock that's already generating positive cash flow while growing at 22%. The Winston Score doesn't fully credit this transition from "burner" to "earner."

The Winston Score above measures business quality today. Growth stocks often score lower because they invest in the future rather than maximising current profits. These metrics show what matters most for evaluating that future.

Share count broadly stable

+0.1% over 4y

The share count has stayed roughly flat over this period — little dilution or buyback activity.

Diluted shares outstanding: 820.0M (2021) → 820.8M (2025)

Score breakdown

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Quality

Gross Margin

24.4%

Thin — 24.4% gross margin

Operating Margin

18.8%

Healthy — 18.8% operating margin

ROCE

3.0%

Weak — 3.0% return on capital

ROIC between 0% and 5%. They earn a few cents back per dollar invested in the business.

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Growth

Sales YoY

+13.3%

Fast-growing sales (13.3% YoY)

EPS YoY

-0.7%

Earnings shrinking (-0.7% YoY)

Slight earnings drop. Typical near a cyclical low.

EPS Consistency

6/8 quarters

Earnings grew in most of the last 8 quarters

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Cash Flow

Cash Conversion

135%

Turns 135% of profit into real cash

FCF Margin

8.3%

Modest free cash flow (8.3%)

FCF margin between 0% and 10%. Some cash from sales, but not a lot.

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Stability

Debt / Equity

0.35

Conservative — low debt load (0.35)

Interest Cover

58.63x

Comfortably covers interest (58.6x)

Interest coverage above 8. Profits cover interest many times over.

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Valuation

P/E Ratio (TTM)

2.1x

Attractive valuation — P/E 2.1

P/E under 10. The price tag is small relative to last year's profit.

P/E vs Forward

+0.3

GROWING

Earnings roughly flat

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Dividends

Dividend Yield

2.87%

Moderate income — 2.87% yield

Standard yield zone for stable dividend payers. A meaningful piece of total return.

Dividend Growth

-6.7%

Dividend cut (-6.7% YoY) — warning sign

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